Planning Application Ref: 11/01422/PP
Representation by Andrew Nisbet, Councillor for Helensburgh and Lomond South
The Officers recommendation to the PPSL Committee gives three reasons for refusal:
1. It is not zoned for Class 1 Retail in the Local Plan agreed a recently as 2009.
2. Significant Adverse Impact on the Town Centre.
3. Loss of the OSPA and TPO area.
However, reason 2 is different from the previous recommendation submitted to your meeting of 20th December in that it no longer claims that the application has failed the sequential test. In the current reason 2 the officers suggest that: “following the decision of the Executive on 2nd February 2012 with regard to the future of Helensburgh Pierhead as expressed in the Pierhead Master Plan the sequential test has been satisfied.” Yet, the new draft masterplan shows 2220 sq metres of net retail floor space and 575 sq metres of back of house space without utilising the former Mariners pub site. Given that masterplans are intended to be indicative, it does not seem to me to be conclusive that a class 1 foodstore of about the size proposed by Waitrose (2322 sq m net and 3390 sq m gross) could not be accommodated on this site. Gareth Hoskins’ submission demonstrates how this could be done whilst still addressing the design concerns raised at the recent consultation. Asda have also indicated their continuing interest in this smaller scale development on the pier site.
Much has been said in recent weeks about the public’s views on the pros and cons of this application and a plethora of surveys have been conducted. Most of them (including my own Facebook survey) suggest that people want Waitrose and/or do not want a big supermarket on the pierhead site. The Council’s own survey regarding the pierhead masterplan if judged on total returns confirms this. However, I would argue that almost all of these surveys are flawed because they cannot claim to be truly representative of the whole population’s views. The reason being that they were “self selecting” . (see reference at end of article) In other words we have no way of knowing whether those who responded are a true cross section of the population. As a Councillor for the area, one of my key roles is to reflect the views of all my constituents.
You may be aware that Nigel Millar, Vice-Chairman of the Community Council and I lobbied for a more representative survey to be conducted as part of this most recent consultation. This led to the Hexagon Survey being conducted. The results are markedly different with a small majority of respondents to the Hexagon Survey being in favour of the Council’s preferred option for a Supermarket and a Leisure Centre on the pierhead site. Table 1 below illustrates this.
Table 1 Comparison of Results for Pierhead Masterplan Survey
Yes No Mixed Opinion
Paper Survey Submissions (522) 13% 65% 22%
On line survey submissions (272) 22% 55% 23%
Hexagon face to face Survey (371) 46% 42% 12%
Total 26% 55% 19%
The Hexagon poll also recorded the gender and age group of the respondents and ensured that the results properly reflected the age and gender balance of the total population of Helensburgh and Lomond. This revealed the following differences in preferences (particularly in terms of age group). See Table 2 below.
Table 2 Breakdown of Hexagon Pierhead Masterplan Survey by Age and Gender
18 – 29 30 – 44 45 – 64 65+ Male Female All
Yes 74% 51% 41% 28% 49% 42% 46%
No 17% 33% 49% 58% 40% 45% 42%
Mixed 9% 16% 10% 14% 11% 13% 12%
My concern is that our decision making could be ill informed if we rely on unrepresentative survey samples. The consultation report notes that, anecdotally, the preponderance of attendees at the Victoria Halls event were from older age groups. It is also evident from the Hexagon results that the older the age group the more negative the view of the Council’s preferred option became.
It is clear, to me, that the only scientific survey data from this whole exercise is from the Hexagon survey. What this illustrates, within the limits of statistical accuracy that any sample survey can have, is that the population of Helensburgh and Lomond is completely split, with my generation almost certainly being against a pierhead retail development, but my children’s generation for it.
Equity
A further issue that needs to be taken into consideration is that of equity. Any out of town (edge of town) store is less accessible to those in the population who don’t have a car. To address this, I understand Waitrose have offered to provide bus stops adjacent to the store and fund some cycle track improvements in the area of the store. However, this still leaves all non car drivers living in the north east of the town having to change buses in the centre of the town; and those from the Cardross direction without a proper cycle route (at this time) to access this. Their efforts to ameliorate these problems suggest they are not really interested in attracting this sector of the population.
Conclusions
• Planning policy and guidance suggests that this application should be refused.
• Independent advice suggests that there could be significant damage to the town centre from this proposed development.
• The scale of development now suggested in the draft masterplan for the pier site, together with the committed council expenditure, offer the opportunity to create a high quality design development which could make Helensburgh Town Centre a regional destination.
• The applicant’s attempts to make the store accessible to all the local population are totally inadequate and fail any equity test.
• Public questionnaire surveys, where the response has been “self selecting”, should not be used to justify changing planning guidance.
• Public opinion is split but younger generations seem to favour a pierhead development which is supported by other supermarket developers.
• This, in turn, suggests that this application still fails the sequential test.
The only survey that has any credibility shows that shows a split decision between my generation and my children’s. In these circumstances, I feel we must go with the younger generation.
Wikipedia Reference
Self-selection bias is possible whenever the group of people being studied has any form of control over whether to participate. Participants’ decision to participate may be correlated with traits that affect the study, making the participants a non-representative sample. For example, people who have strong opinions or substantial knowledge may be more willing to spend time answering a survey than those who do not. Another example is online and phone-in polls, which are biased samples because the respondents are self-selected. Those individuals who are highly motivated to respond, typically individuals who have strong opinions, are overrepresented, and individuals that are indifferent or apathetic are less likely to respond. This often leads to a polarization of responses with extreme perspectives being given a disproportionate weight in the summary. As a result, these types of polls are regarded as unscientific